Introduction, Pakistan and the Taliban share a long, complex history. For decades, Islamabad played a crucial role in shaping Afghanistan’s political landscape, supporting the Taliban during the 1990s and even after the U.S. invasion in 2001. But today, relations between the two sides are strained. Border clashes, disputes over the Durand Line, and Taliban’s alleged support for militant groups inside Pakistan have soured ties.
Amid this diplomatic crisis, China has emerged as a potential mediator. Beijing, with its deepening influence in both Afghanistan and Pakistan through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and security cooperation, is uniquely positioned to broker peace. The question is: Can China really make Pakistan and the Taliban friends again?
The Source of Tensions
Relations between Islamabad and Kabul took a sharp turn after the Taliban returned to power in August 2021. Instead of acting as Pakistan’s strategic partner, the Taliban government asserted independence.
- Border Disputes – The Durand Line remains a bone of contention. Frequent clashes have caused civilian and military casualties on both sides.
- Militancy Concerns – Pakistan accuses the Taliban of sheltering the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group responsible for deadly attacks inside Pakistan.
- Diplomatic Frustrations – The Taliban resists Pakistan’s influence, preferring to pursue its own foreign policy, including closer ties with Russia, Iran, and Central Asia.
These issues have pushed Pakistan to adopt a tougher stance, including cross-border strikes and increased pressure on Afghan refugees.
Why China Wants Stability
For China, the stakes are high. The country shares a small but strategically important border with Afghanistan in the Wakhan Corridor and fears instability could spill over into Xinjiang. Moreover, Afghanistan is vital for China’s economic ambitions in the region.
- Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): A stable Afghanistan could extend China’s trade corridors, linking Central Asia to South Asia.
- Security Concerns: Beijing wants guarantees that Afghan soil won’t be used by extremist groups threatening Chinese projects and citizens in Pakistan.
- Economic Interests: Afghanistan’s untapped mineral wealth, particularly lithium, is attractive for China’s energy and tech industries.
Thus, peace between Pakistan and the Taliban aligns perfectly with China’s long-term vision.
China’s Diplomatic Moves
In recent months, China has increased engagement with both Pakistan and the Taliban.
- Hosting Taliban delegations in Beijing.
- Offering infrastructure investments in Afghanistan under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) framework.
- Pushing for regional security dialogues involving Iran, Russia, and Central Asian states.
China portrays itself as a “neutral mediator,” unlike the U.S., which the Taliban mistrusts, or India, with whom Pakistan remains in rivalry.
Challenges Ahead
While China’s influence is undeniable, mediation will not be easy.
- Taliban’s Independence: The Taliban leadership is resistant to foreign interference and may reject Pakistan’s attempts to dictate terms.
- TTP Issue: Unless the Taliban takes a strong stance against the TTP, Pakistan will continue to feel threatened.
- Trust Deficit: Years of broken promises and cross-border tensions make reconciliation difficult.
However, China has leverage that neither side wants to ignore. Both Pakistan and the Taliban depend on Beijing for economic opportunities, political legitimacy, and regional security guarantees.
What This Means for South Asia
If China succeeds in bridging the gap, it could reshape South Asian geopolitics. Improved Pakistan-Taliban ties would:
- Enhance security along the Afghan-Pakistan border.
- Open doors for greater regional trade and connectivity.
- Strengthen China’s role as a power broker in South Asia.
But failure could worsen instability, pushing Afghanistan deeper into isolation and leaving Pakistan vulnerable to militant threats.
Conclusion
China’s efforts to mend ties between Pakistan and the Taliban highlight its growing role as a global mediator. While challenges remain—especially around the TTP issue and border disputes—Beijing has both the economic clout and political patience to push for reconciliation.
Whether Pakistan and the Taliban can truly become friends again depends not only on China’s diplomacy but also on whether both sides are willing to compromise for regional peace.
For Pakistan, a stable Afghanistan is crucial. For the Taliban, international legitimacy is at stake. And for China, the outcome will determine whether its vision for the region succeeds or collapses.
