Hamas Under Siege: Trump’s Ultimatum and Its Implications, In a dramatic escalation of diplomacy, former U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a three- to four-day ultimatum to Hamas, demanding acceptance of a U.S.-led peace plan for Gaza or face severe consequences. The Guardian+3Reuters+3Modern Diplomacy+3
The proposal, framed as a 20-point peace plan, was jointly presented by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has publicly backed it—though with caveats. The Guardian+4Le Monde.fr+4Reuters+4 Hamas, however, was deliberately excluded from the drafting process, leading many to view the plan as heavily skewed toward Israeli priorities. The Guardian+3Reuters+3Modern Diplomacy+3
Some of the plan’s key demands include:
- Immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hamas
- Release of all hostages within 72 hours of truce
- Disarmament of Hamas
- Phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
- Formation of a transitional governance body overseen by an international authority The Guardian+4Reuters+4TIME+4
Trump framed the deadline starkly: if Hamas declines, Israel would “finish the job” without further negotiation. Modern Diplomacy+4Politico+4The Guardian+4
Why Is Hamas Feeling the Pressure?
1. Geopolitical Isolation
Over recent months, Hamas has found itself increasingly isolated. Regional actors like Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the UAE have signaled conditional support for the peace plan. Modern Diplomacy+4Reuters+4Le Monde.fr+4 Without strong external backing, Hamas may find rejecting the plan increasingly untenable.
2. Strategic Stakes
Accepting the plan would fundamentally transform Hamas’s role in Gaza—requiring relinquishment of arms and political control. For a movement built on armed resistance, this is deeply existential. The Guardian+4Reuters+4TIME+4
Equally, rejecting it could invite a full-scale Israeli offensive, backed by U.S. diplomatic cover. Trump’s warning of a “very sad end” underscores the stakes. The Guardian+3Politico+3The Guardian+3
3. Internal Fragmentation
Hamas is not monolithic. Its political leadership (often abroad) and military wing in Gaza sometimes diverge in strategy. Experts suggest Hamas must first reconcile internal consensus before formally responding. The Independent+2AP News+2
4. Prolonged Conflict Fatigue
After nearly two years of conflict, the human and infrastructural toll on Gaza is immense. Many civilians, battered by constant bombings, displacement, and shortages, may pressure Hamas to negotiate rather than prolong suffering. Sky News+3The Guardian+3AP News+3
Scenarios Ahead: What Might Hamas Do?
- Accept with Conditions
Hamas may agree to a modified version of the plan, pushing back on disarmament or insisting on stronger guarantees for Palestinian self-determination. - Delay or Stall
Request extensions or open “good-faith negotiations” in hopes of shifting dynamics—especially if the regional climate becomes more favorable. - Flat Out Reject
Hamas might reject the terms outright, labeling them as one-sided and non-viable. This move, however, risks triggering greater military escalation. - Fragmented Response
Different factions might react divergently, with some wings signaling openness while others warn of resistance—further muddying the decision.
Why This Matters to the Wider World
- Hostage Release: The plan’s leverage is built partly around an urgent hostage-for-prisoner exchange. Success or failure may sway public and diplomatic opinion.
- Precedents for Conflict Resolution: The move could become a road map for ending long-running conflicts in other zones, if proven effective.
- Humanitarian Relief: A ceasefire would open supply corridors, enabling more effective aid delivery to Gaza’s suffering population.
- Shifting Regional Alliances: Countries in the Middle East may recalibrate alliances based on how Hamas responds—altering power balances.
What’s Next — A Countdown of Days
Within the next 72 to 96 hours, Hamas must:
- Convene leadership councils to review the text
- Communicate with external stakeholders (Qatar, Iran, Egypt)
- Decide on a public statement or counteroffer
For now, the world waits.
